Information for September 15, 2014

Burn Recommendations  latest update: 09/14/2014 19:47

MONTANA

Airshed 1 is restricted below 5000 feet elevation with the exception of 157299 Alder13 28 ac and 164144 Bristow S4 39 ac which are approved due to remote location.

Airshed 2 is restricted below 5000 feet elevation.

Airshed 3A is restricted below 6500 feet elevation.

Airshed 6 - 170651 Ethel 22 is restricted due to 0 tons/ac reported.

Airshed 7 - 168563 2009 Aspen 51 ac and 168564 2010 Aspen 111 ac are restricted due to inability to determine location/elevation.

No other restrictions.

IDAHO

No restrictions.


These burn recommendations apply only to members of the Montana/Idaho Airshed Group. Nonmembers should follow any applicable local, state, or Tribal guidelines regarding open burning.


Meteorology/Dispersion Discussion  latest update: 09/15/2014 08:32

MONDAY, September 15 Discussion

Only MODERATE smoke dispersion conditions are expected across Western MT and ID today as a weak W transport wind flow continues over ID and MT beneath upper level high pressure ridging. Slope winds will be diurnally driven following the breakup of the morning valley and canyon temperature inversions...which could last until mid-day across some of the ID and Western MT airsheds. Dispersion conditions will be good in across the rest of MT and ND after weaker morning inversions break by late morning. Skies will be mostly sunny through the day. No significant weather impacts are expected. Impact zones across ID and W MT should be monitored for MODERATE conditions.

 

Only MODERATE smoke dispersion conditions are expected across Western MT and ID Tuesday as fairly weak W-SW transport wind flow will be present beneath upper level high pressure ridging. Slope winds will be diurnally driven following the breakup of the morning valley and canyon temperature inversions...which could last until mid-day across some of the ID and Western MT airsheds. Dispersion conditions will be good in across the rest of MT and ND after weaker morning inversions break by late morning. There will be increasing clouds south of I-90 during the afternoon with isolated mainly mountain showers late in the day west of the Continental Divide...otherwise...no significant weather impacts are expected. Impact zones across ID and W MT should be monitored for MODERATE conditions.

 

GOOD smoke dispersion conditions are expected across western/central MT and ID on Wednesday  following the breaking of the morning temperature inversions as transport wind flow continues to become more from the SW by afternoon and the atmosphere becomes a little more unstable.  As it does so...look for the transport wind flow to become slightly stronger across the ID airsheds. Slope winds will be diurnally driven following the breakup of the morning valley and canyon temperature inversions...which could last until mid-day. There could be some isolated wet thunderstorms late in the day over Airsheds 16/17 in ID and 5-6-7-8-9 in MT. 

 

Extended outlook:

GOOD smoke dispersion conditions are expected across western/central MT and ID on Thursday following the breaking of the morning temperature inversions as transport wind flow will increase from the W-SW in afternoon with the passage of a weak dry cold front...though there could be isolated showers/wet thunderstorms over SW MT. GOOD dispersion conditions will continue on Friday as W-NW transport wind flow occurs with the passage of a weak low pressure trough. 


For a multimedia web briefing clink on this link. Under NRCC Weather Products, click on the multimedia web briefing link.

 

Monday, September 15 Dispersion Forecast
MONTANA

Northwest (AS 1, 2):  POOR until late morning...then MODERATE.

West Central (AS 3A, 3B, 4, 5, 6): POOR until late morning...then MODERATE.

Southwest(AS 7, 8A, 8B): MODERATE-GOOD.

Eastern Montana (AS 9 and 10): GOOD to EXCELLENT.

 

IDAHO:

North (AS 11):  POOR until late morning...then MODERATE.

North Central (AS 12A, 12B, 13): POOR until late morning...then MODERATE.

West Central (AS 14, 15, 21A): POOR until late morning...then MODERATE.

East Central (AS 16, 17): POOR until late morning...then MODERATE.

Northeast (AS 18, 19):  POOR until late morning...then MODERATE.

Southeast (AS 20): GOOD.

Southwest (AS 21B, 22, 23, 24, 25): GOOD.

 

Prepared by Michael Richmond, Northern Rockies Met


Forecast for

Burn Recommendations  latest update: 09/15/2014 16:09

MONTANA

Airshed 1 is restricted below 5000 feet elevation with the exception of 159867 Alder6... 12 ac and 164144 Bristow S4A 1 ac which are approved due to remote location and small size.

Airshed 2 is restricted below 5000 feet elevation with the exception of 169959 Mission 981 ac which is restricted due to size and 169963 Spotted Bear River 4 ac which is approved due to remote location and small size.

Airshed 3A is restricted with the exception of 168661 Mink Peak 33 ac which is approved due to remote location and high priority.

No other restrictions.

IDAHO

Airshed 13 is restricted.

No other restrictions.


Meteorology/Dispersion Discussion  latest update: 09/13/2014 07:09

TUESDAY, September 16 Discussion

GOOD smoke dispersion conditions are expected across MT and ID on Tuesday afternoon following the breaking of the morning temperature inversions as the a somewhat weak W transport wind flow continues over ID and MT beneath a weak upper level ridge of high pressure. Slope winds will be diurnally driven following the breakup of the morning valley and canyon temperature inversions...which could last until mid-day across some of the ID  and NW MT airsheds. Skies will be mostly sunny through the day. No significant weather impacts are expected. Impact zones across ID and W MT should be monitored for possible (localized) MODERATE conditions.

 

Extended outlook: 

GOOD smoke dispersion conditions are expected across MT and ID on Wednesday  following the breaking of the morning temperature inversions as the the weak W transport wind flow continues begins to become more from the SW by afternoon. As it does so...look for the transport wind flow to become slightly stronger across the ID airsheds. Slope winds will be diurnally driven following the breakup of the morning valley and canyon temperature inversions...which could last until mid-day. Afternoon rhs could briefly dip into the upper teens across portions of W MT and N ID. Impact zones across ID and W MT should be monitored for possible (localized) MODERATE conditions.

 

Mostly GOOD smoke dispersion conditions are expected Thursday following the breaking of the morning temperature inversions. Some pockets of MODERATE conditions may linger across portions of Central ID in the afternoon as the W wind flow remains light and as the atmosphere remains stable in this air.  Across MT...the W flow should be strong enough to allow for good afternoon mixing of the atmosphere. No significant weather impacts are expected.

 

GOOD smoke dispersion conditions are expected Friday across the region as a weak, dry W transport wind flow lingers over the region. Morning valley and canyon temperature inversions should break out by mid-day. Surface winds will be diurnally driven and light. No significant weather impacts are expected.


For a multimedia web briefing clink on this link. Under NRCC Weather Products, click on the multimedia web briefing link.

 

Tuesday, September 16 Dispersion Forecast

MONTANA

Northwest (AS 1, 2):  MODERATE until late morning...then GOOD.

West Central (AS 3A, 3B, 4, 5, 6): MODERATE until late morning...then GOOD.

Southwest(AS 7, 8A, 8B): GOOD.

Eastern Montana (AS 9 and 10): GOOD to EXCELLENT.

 

IDAHO:

North (AS 11): MODERATE until late morning...then GOOD.

North Central (AS 12A, 12B, 13): MODERATE until late morning...then GOOD.

West Central (AS 14, 15, 21A): MODERATE until late morning...then GOOD.

East Central (AS 16, 17): MODERATE until late morning...then GOOD.

Northeast (AS 18, 19): MODERATE until late morning...then GOOD.

Southeast (AS 20): GOOD.

Southwest (AS 21B, 22, 23, 24, 25): GOOD.

 

Prepared by Bryan Henry, Northern Rockies Met