Information for October 30, 2014

Burn Recommendations  latest update: 10/30/2014 10:42

MONTANA

Airshed 1 is restricted below 4200 feet elevation.

Airshed 2 is restricted below 5000 feet elevation.  Impact Zones are restricted.

Airshed 3A - Impact Zones are restricted with the exception of 162524 Grant Creek hand piles 5 ac which is approved.

Airshed 3B - Seeley Impact Zone is restricted below 4500 feet elevation.

Airshed 4 is restricted below 5000 feet elevation.  In addition, 166800 Larry Bass hand piles 4 ac is restricted due to proximity to the Impact Zone.

Airshed 6 is restricted below 6500 feet elevation.

Airshed 8A is restricted with the exception of three small hand pile units (see map).

*All burns with inconsistent location information are restricted.*  Please check your airshed/elevation/lat/long.

No other restrictions.

*Missoula County burns have been coordinated with Missoula County.*

IDAHO

Airshed 11 is restricted below 3800 feet elevation.

Airsheds 12A and 12B - Pile units greater than 250 acres in size are restricted.

*All burns with inconsistent location information are restricted.*  Please check your airshed/elevation/lat/long.

No other restrictions.

 


These burn recommendations apply only to members of the Montana/Idaho Airshed Group. Nonmembers should follow any applicable local, state, or Tribal guidelines regarding open burning.


Meteorology/Dispersion Discussion  latest update: 10/30/2014 07:57

THURSDAY, October 30 Discussion

POOR-MODERATE smoke dispersion conditions will occur today across western MT and ID as a strengthening ridge of high pressure moves east to be over central MT by afternoon. Valley/canyon temperature inversions will hold through the day and only weaken slightly even in the higher valleys near Butte and in the Big Hole. Higher ridgetop winds (where some mixing will occur) will be light and from the SE to S. Some fog is likely in the fog prone areas near waterways. All impact zones need to be monitored.


POOR-MODERATE smoke dispersion conditions are expected across W MT and ID until early afternoon Friday as the ridge of high pressure moves east to be over eastern MT. In the afternoon...some mixing may occur over ID as SW flow strengthens in advance of the next system. The valleys of W MT will likely not mix out fully though. Central and eastern MT will continue to see GOOD-EXCELLENT smoke dispersion conditions as a strong Southerly low level jet streak moves across eastern MT during the morning producing some Southerly winds. All impact zones should be monitored.

 

Extended outlook: 

GOOD to EXCELLENT smoke dispersion conditions are expected Saturday as a cold front moves through ID and W MT by mid-day. Showers will accompany the system. Snow levels should fall to be around 4000 ft. N and 5000 ft in afternoon...and even a little lower sat. night. Locally heavy snowfall is likely over many of the mountain ranges south of I-90 in ID and all of MT.  While winds w of the Divide will be light westerly...the mixing assoicated with the trough should promote favorable dispersion conditions. E MT will remain warm and dry with a light S-SE wind. Expect continued GOOD to EXCELLENT smoke dispersion conditons there.

 

GOOD to EXCELLENT smoke dispersion conditions are expected Sunday as the weakening upper level trough moves into E MT. While most of the shower activity will move to be over the plains by afternoon...scattered snow showers are possible across W MT and N ID in the afternoon. Transport wind flow will be from the W-NW.

 

GOOD to EXCELLENT smoke dispersion conditions are expected Sunday as the weakening upper level trough moves into E MT. While most of the shower activity will move to be over the plains by afternoon...scattered snow showers will still occuracross W MT and N ID in the afternoon. Transport wind flow will be from the W-NW.

POOR-MODERATE smoke dispersion conditions are expected Monday over ID and western MT as strong valley inversions will form sun. night...then high pressure ridging with warming aloft will develop by mon. morning. GOOD dispersion will continue for central/eastern MT though with adequate W-NW surface winds. Impact zones will need to be monitored. 

 

For a multimedia web briefing clink on this link. Under NRCC Weather Products, click on the multimedia web briefing link.

 

Thursday, October 30 Dispersion Forecast

MONTANA

Northwest (AS 1, 2):  POOR in the morning...then MODERATE.

West Central (AS 3A, 3B, 4, 5, 6): POOR.

 Southwest(AS 7, 8A, 8B): POOR in the morning...then MODERATE.

Eastern Montana (AS 9 and 10): GOOD.

 

IDAHO:

North (AS 11): POOR. 

North Central (AS 12A, 12B, 13): POOR in the morning...then MODERATE.

West Central (AS 14, 15, 21A): POOR.

East Central (AS 16, 17): POOR.

Northeast (AS 18, 19): POOR in the morning...then MODERATE.

Southeast (AS 20): POOR in the morning...then MODERATE.

Southwest (AS 21B, 22, 23, 24, 25): POOR in the morning...then MODERATE.

 

Prepared by Michael Richmond, Northern Rockies Met


Forecast for

Burn Recommendations  latest update:

No information posted for 10/31/2014.


Meteorology/Dispersion Discussion  latest update: 10/28/2014 07:57

FRIDAY, October 31 Discussion

MODERATE smoke dispersion conditions are expected across W MT and ID until early afternoon Friday as the ridge of high pressure remains over Central MT. In the afternoon...some mixing may occur over ID as SW flow strengthens in advance of the next system. The valleys of W MT will likely not mix out though. E MT will continue to see GOOD to EXCELLENT smoke dispersion conditions as a strong Southerly low level jet streak moves across the area during the morning producing some Southerly winds. All impact zones should be monitored.


Extended outlook: 

GOOD to EXCELLENT smoke dispersion conditions are expected Saturday as a broad upper level trough moves over ID and W MT by mid-day. Showers will accompany the system. Snow levels should fall to be around 6000 feet. While winds will be light and variable...the mixing assoicated with the trough should promote favorable dispersion conditions. E MT will remain warm and dry with a light Southerly wind. Expect continued GOOD to EXCELLENT smoke dispersion conditons there.

 

GOOD to EXCELLENT smoke dispersion conditions are expected Sunday as the weakening upper level trough moves into E MT. While most of the shower activity will move to be over the plains...some isolated snow showers are possible across W MT and N ID in the afternoon. Transport wind flow will be from the NW.

 

GOOD to EXCELLENT smoke dispersion conditions are expected on Monday as a breezy, moist Westerly flow develops over the region. By the time the sun rises most of ID and W MT will be experiencing widespread precipitation...though some of the broader N-S oriented valleys could experience some shadowing effects thus limiting precip. Winds on the slopes will be quite breezy. Some significant snowfall is possible above 5000 feet...especially on West-facing slopes. E MT will remain warm, breezy and dry through the day.

 

For a multimedia web briefing clink on this link. Under NRCC Weather Products, click on the multimedia web briefing link.

 

Friday, October 31 Dispersion Forecast

MONTANA

Northwest (AS 1, 2):  MODERATE.

West Central (AS 3A, 3B, 4, 5, 6): MODERATE.

Southwest(AS 7, 8A, 8B): MODERATE.

Eastern Montana (AS 9 and 10): GOOD to EXCELLENT.

 

IDAHO:

North (AS 11): MODERATE.

North Central (AS 12A, 12B, 13): MODERATE.

West Central (AS 14, 15, 21A): MODERATE.

East Central (AS 16, 17): MODERATE.

Northeast (AS 18, 19): MODERATE.

Southeast (AS 20): POOR in the morning...then MODERATE.

Southwest (AS 21B, 22, 23, 24, 25):MODERATE.

 

Prepared by Bryan Henry, Northern Rockies Met